Gun violence is down in Pennsylvania. Advocates worry that won’t be the case under Trump.

Violence prevention programs funded by the Shapiro-Davis administration are helping to drive down gun violence across Pennsylvania — but that progress could be jeopardized once President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January, gun safety advocates said during a Nov. 20 forum. 

The number of gun homicides in Pennsylvania dropped by nearly 24% in the first four months of 2024, according to an analysis from the Center for American Progress. From Philadelphia to Pittsburgh, cities across the state are experiencing significant declines in gun violence.

That decrease is largely rooted in the millions of dollars that the administration of Gov. Josh Shapiro and Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, both Democrats, has invested in gun violence prevention initiatives for communities throughout the commonwealth, according to CeaseFirePA Executive Director Adam Garber. However, he and Democratic lawmakers cautioned the success that’s been made to curb gun violence and save lives, both in the state and nationwide, could take a significant hit under the incoming Trump administration.

“We know, unfortunately, that the Trump administration, and the Congress that is supporting him, is going to undermine so much of the progress we’ve made,” Garber, whose organization raises awareness around gun violence, said during the forum that his group organized to discuss the future of gun safety in Pennsylvania following the presidential election.

“They’re already talking about cutting funding for the violence prevention programs that have cut violence down and saved lives,” Garber continued. “And so it’s going to be important that the [Pennsylvania] Legislature steps up and allocates more resources to community violence intervention programs through the PA Commission on Crime and Delinquency to make sure that the successful infrastructure that has been built doesn’t fall apart.”

After the Biden administration oversaw the passage of the first major federal gun safety law in nearly 30 years and boosted federal funding for community-led gun violence prevention programs nationwide, Trump has vowed to undo the Democratic president’s work around gun violence. Gun-related homicides have dropped since Biden took office in 2021, according to a Center for American Progress’s analysis of Gun Violence Archive data. Mass shootings are also down, according to the same analysis. 

Gun safety advocates throughout the country have called Trump’s return to office deeply troubling and, like Garber, say they expect to see the incoming administration slash funding for gun violence prevention efforts, use executive orders to undo the Biden administration’s policies to curb gun violence, eliminate the White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention, and remove the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosive Director Steve Dettelbach — something Trump has explicitly said he will do immediately upon taking office.

During his first term, Trump rolled back gun regulations and made it easier to purchase deadly weapons. Gun homicides spiked by 34% when Trump was president, according to a Giffords analysis of U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.

Trump bragged during a Feb. 9 National Rifle Association presidential forum in Harrisburg that his administration took no action to regulate guns.

“During my four years, nothing happened,” Trump said, according to reporting from the Daily Beast. “And there was great pressure on me having to do with guns. We did nothing. We didn’t yield.”

With the federal government likely dropping its support for gun violence prevention efforts once Trump is back in the White House, advocates said it’s crucial that Pennsylvania state lawmakers boost their backing for gun safety initiatives in the commonwealth. 

“We’re at the moment where we’ve really succeeded, and we have more work to do,” Garber said. “But if the resources dry up, and we don’t have the federal funding anymore, and the state doesn’t step up and continue to invest…we will see violence spike, I promise you.”

Shapiro and Davis have been staunch advocates of gun safety, and the administration has overseen an increase in funding for gun violence prevention efforts. The 2024-25 budget signed into law by Shapiro included a 40% increase in state funding for violence prevention and intervention initiatives. Earlier this year, the governor relaunched the state’s Office of Gun Violence Prevention.

Gun safety advocates say they have allies in Shapiro and in the state House, where Democrats hold a 102-101 majority. The Republican-led Senate, meanwhile, has not voted on any gun safety legislation passed by the House since Democrats took control of the chamber in 2023.

After Democrats won a majority in the state House in 2022 for the first time in 12 years, House lawmakers went on to pass a number of gun safety bills, including legislation that would create extreme risk protection orders. Colloquially known as red flag laws, extreme risk protection orders would create a process for family members or law enforcement to petition a judge to temporarily suspend a person’s access to firearms in order to stop them from harming themselves or others. The Senate never acted on that legislation.

The state House also passed a bill in 2023 that would repeal the exclusion of long guns from the state’s background check requirement. Long guns include rifles, shotguns and military-style assault weapons. House lawmakers in 2024 passed legislation that would ban the purchase, sale and production of ghost gun parts. Ghost guns are homemade firearms that can be assembled from a kit with no serial number and can be purchased without a background check.

The Senate did not act on either of those bills.

Rep. Mike Schlossberg, a Democrat who is the House’s incoming majority caucus whip, said he believes some Senate Republicans could be persuaded to back gun safety legislation, in part because of polls showing overwhelming public support for gun violence prevention bills.

“These are popular issues, but, more importantly, they’re important issues,” Schlossberg said. “They’re meaningful, and we need to continue to try to pass legislation that will save lives.”

Democratic State Rep. Napoleon Nelson, the chair of the Pennsylvania Legislative Black Caucus, added that Republicans are aware that Trump will never be on the ballot again — which, Nelson said, could make Republicans less likely to be able to flip seats in the future and more likely to work with Democrats on gun safety legislation. 

“There are reasons to believe that we’ll continue to move these bills, and they will get more and more and deeper consideration in the Senate,” Nelson said.